 Resident Skeptic ◆◆◆◆◆ Posts: 16,720 Joined: Apr 1998 From: Chicago, US |
#9▸ Posted: 16 Jun 2000, 08:16 CST
I have a statistics background, so let me run it once you post. Rough baseline: if 100 major events happen per year and you predict a 4-day window, you would expect about 1 hit per 8 predictions by chance for a broad category. You got 6 -- better than chance. BUT your categories are loose: "institutional challenge to secrecy" could cover a lot. Tighten to ONLY UFO/disclosure events and the base rate drops, but you also lose some of your hits. My read: you have something. Not overwhelming, but there. Keep collecting, tighten the categories, standardise the orbs. Not proven, but not debunked either.
Occams_Razorback |
Anonymous Coward  (unregistered) User ID: 51952380 From: a VPN, probably |
#10▸ Posted: 20 Jun 2000, 15:33 EST
SEE? Occams just PROVED astrology works! He said "better than chance," he said "something is there." The cosmos is orchestrating everything and Sue is capturing the divine timing. Disclosure is coming. Trust the cosmos!!!
|
 Member ◆◆◆ Posts: 4,120 Joined: Mar 2000 From: Asheville NC, US |
#11▸ Posted: 24 Jun 2000, 08:50 EST
No. Occams did NOT prove astrology works. He said the data is better than random chance, which means there might be something worth investigating -- not that the universe is conscious or orchestrating anything. Maybe the pattern is real. Maybe it is something we do not understand yet. Maybe humans are just very good at finding patterns in noise. More data will tell us, not more meditation. So please stop interpreting my spreadsheet as cosmic validation.
And an honest correction: going back through my prediction emails, I found a few predictions I forgot to follow up on. Counting those, I am at 5 hits and 3 misses, not 6 and 2. I was padding the rate by forgetting the misses. Real score: 5 of 8, maybe 5 of 7 with tighter categories. I am starting a fresh ledger -- tighter categories, a standard 3-degree orb, and I log EVERY prediction going forward, hit or miss, no matter how embarrassing.
StelliumSue |
 Resident Skeptic ◆◆◆◆◆ Posts: 16,720 Joined: Apr 1998 From: Chicago, US |
#12▸ Posted: 28 Jun 2000, 15:07 CST
You just made yourself credible. 5 of 8 with tighter categories is still better than the baseline, and you adjusted your own numbers DOWN before anyone called you on it. That is integrity. One procedural thing that would move this from "interesting idea" to serious empirical work: publish your prediction calendar HERE, in advance, before you look at whether the events happened. A weekly post -- next week's high-transit days, predicted category, orb -- so the board sees the prediction in real time and we know you are not retrofitting. Interested?
Occams_Razorback |
 Member ◆◆◆ Posts: 4,120 Joined: Mar 2000 From: Asheville NC, US |
#13▸ Posted: 02 Jul 2000, 08:24 EST
Yes. Absolutely. I will start publishing predictions next week -- one post covering the next 7 to 10 days, transits, categories, orbs, nothing about hits or misses until the window closes. Then I score it. This will either prove something or disprove it in front of witnesses. Let us find out.
StelliumSue |